Toyota is still #1 — but it’s sliding, and the new RAV4 is the bet to stop it
by ADME Newsroom, Automotive market wrap
Toyota has been Australia’s top-selling brand every year since 2003. In 2026 it still is — but the margin is being tested in a way it hasn’t for a generation.
The slide
Through May 2026, Toyota is down ~24.7% year-to-date, with May alone off 30.7% (16,342 units). It still leads the brand chart comfortably over BYD (8,211), Ford (7,195), Hyundai (7,007) and Kia (6,761) — but the full-year forecast has been revised to around 220,000 vehicles, roughly 8.3% below the prior record.
The pain is concentrated in older models awaiting renewal: Prado down ~45% YTD, Kluger down ~39.9%, Yaris down ~44.4%, and the HiLux off 19.1% in May.
The fix: an all-electrified RAV4
Toyota’s answer is the all-new sixth-generation RAV4, which reached showrooms in 2026 priced from $45,990 plus on-roads for the GX 2WD hybrid. The whole range is electrified — there’s no pure-petrol RAV4 — combining the 5th-gen 2.5L hybrid with Toyota’s first Australian RAV4 PHEV, due in Q3 2026.
Toyota is aiming for 50,000+ RAV4 sales in 2026 and is openly positioning it to become the first electrified SUV ever to top Australia’s overall sales charts. It also expects its bZ4X EV to lift to ~5,000 sales (from 1,041 in 2025).
Who else is holding — and who isn’t
- Ford — the Ranger keeps Ford’s flag flying as Australia’s #1 vehicle for a third straight year, even as the brand total dips.
- Hyundai (7,007, +4.5%) has pushed ahead of Kia (6,761, −2.1%), powered by SUV growth — Kona +17.4%, Tucson +27.5%.
- Mazda is having a hard year — 5,698 units in May, down 27.4%, with most of the range in double-digit decline (the CX-60 and MX-5 are the exceptions).
The total market through May 2026 was 475,659 units, down 2.2% YoY — so even the winners are fighting for share of a shrinking pool.
What it means for dealers
Even the strongest franchises can’t coast on brand equity right now. Toyota’s slide is largely a product-cycle story — older models fading before their replacements arrive — which is exactly when marketing earns its keep. When the metal is between generations, the dealers who keep enquiry flowing are the ones telling a clear story about what’s available now and what’s coming, rather than waiting for the new model to sell itself.
Figures: CarExpert, CarExpert VFACTS and CarsGuide.